TRACK RECORD
Every number here is reconciled against official results and never edited. Only forecasts made beforequalifying count toward the headline — once the real grid is known, a prediction isn't a forecast any more.
Podium accuracy
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Top-1 hit rate
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Rounds scored
0
Model vs baseline
Spearman rank correlation, per stage. The baseline is the strongest naive signal available at that moment.
No trained model registered yet.
Reliability
When the model says 35%, does it happen 35% of the time? On the diagonal is perfect.
Not enough scored predictions yet for a reliability curve (0 podium observations so far).
Upsets
Podiums the model gave almost no chance. Its misses, published on purpose.
No upsets recorded yet.
Sprint — separate
~6 sprints a year keeps this record thin, so it's scored on its own sample and never folded into the headline above.
No sprint sample yetNO SAMPLE
No sprint predictions scored yet. When they are, they appear here on their own — never merged into the headline.